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Burrows Space News Article
Text of “Planetary Defense” by William E. Burrows
printed in the Op Ed section of Space News (Sept 23, 2002)
Planetary Defense It has been three decades since Apollo 17 became the last manned mission to the Moon. That is precisely how long the space program has been without an overarching sense of purpose.
While there have been a number of outstanding achievements since then – Voyager 2's Grand Tour of the outer planets, the Hubble Space Telescope, and the Shuttle-Mir flights, to take only three – the space program is floundering because it lacks focus on a clear and truly important goal.
The International Space Station is not a contender. It has been downgraded by the current administration (which has a reputation for reneging on commitments), is hated by most space scientists, and is ignored by an indifferent public that sees no real purpose to it. Indeed, most educated individuals I know think that $500 million shuttle launches and astronauts bolting station modules together while dangling upside down at the end of tethers is horrendously wasteful and frivolous while down-to-Earth problems (pick one) persist for lack of adequate funding.
Yet these is a vitally important goal that the space community is uniquely qualified to address. That is planetary defense in its many manifestations. Access to space has given mankind the means to protect Earth from many threats for the first time. The three large asteroids that wandered into the neighborhood earlier this year, the closest streaking past Earth at an astronomically minute 75,000 miles, were sending a message. No astronomer who specializes in Earth-crossing asteroids and comets believes the planet is in imminent danger of a collision. But there have been catastrophic hits before – the best known being the one that finished off dinosaurs sixty-one million years ago – and there will be others.
Knowing that, Congress authorized the Spaceguard program ten years ago. Spaceguard (named after a similar program in Arthur C. Clarke's 1973 novel, Rendezvous with Rama) is currently trying to catalogue ninety percent or more of kilometer-size
Earth-crossers, or "city-busters," that could threaten Earth. NASA is an active participant in the program. Three decades warning of an impact would be necessary to nudge the intruder to a safer trajectory.
But asteroids and comets on surprise visits from the Oort Cloud are far from the only potentially calamitous dangers we face. The list includes massive volcanism and earthquakes, forest and water depletion, nuclear war, global warming, pollution, and a worldwide computer crash that could cause chaos in communication and transportation.
Many of these threats could be reversed or mitigated by using space in a comprehensive, multi-faceted, program with a single, clearly articulated, goal: saving the species by protecting Earth. That is hardly frivolous.
Species survival through planetary defense would justify a wide array of programs. Chief among them would be a reinvigorated manned program aimed at starting what would become a large colony on the Moon. The inhabitants would, in turn, be the keepers of a continuously updated archive containing civilization's artistic, scientific, political, and other records, as well as a biological component that could recreate many species, ourselves included.
Those of us who are working on the archive concept call it ARC, for the Alliance to Rescue Civilization, and are convinced it is necessary to back up civilization's record and the natural world for the same reason it is necessary to back up a computer's hard drive: to be able to recover from a crash. Spreading the seed and duplicating the record for safekeeping off the planet are the most compelling reasons to send people to space.
ARC would have a two-fold benefit. It would provide the means to resurrect the culture and biology of a severely stricken planet. And it would serve to further international cooperation because all nations would be invited to participate. There would, however, be a caveat. Since ARC would necessarily be an infinitely long and on- going project (not a time capsule, which would become less useful as time went on), it would have to be funded mostly by the private sector rather than be held hostage to the vagaries and whims of whatever political administration or even system that is in power. With a large-scale return to the Moon in the agenda, heavy emphasis on researching life in closed systems would also be included in the program, and so would the long-stalled development of single or two stage to orbit space buses.
Remote sensing would be another fundamental aspect of planetary defense. In fact, it already is, though it is not rationalized that way. CORONA reconnaissance satellite imagery of the Aral Sea from the early '60s, compared with much more recent Landsat imagery, shows startling shrinkage. Other orbital imagery is describing the break up of part of the Antarctic ice shelf. And the switch from on the ground measurement and guesswork to comprehensive satellite pictures is providing scientists with clear evidence that the world's humid tropical forest cover is being burned down and hacked away at an alarming rate. Unlike estimates made on the spot by experts looking around and trying to make measurements, satellite imagery depicting deforestation, pollution, urban sprawl, and shrinking watersheds is precise and conclusive. Whatever the political and economic decisions, the data are not subject to widely differing interpretation. Similarly, remote sensing can provide warning of a volcano's impending eruption because the ground above and around it heaves as the first explosion occurs and molten lava starts to move. Other satellites in the program would monitor solar flare activity, monitor carbon dioxide levels, measure ozone levels, and more. All of these operations should be brought together under the aegis of a single, unified, and integrated program run by NASA for the sole purpose of protecting the planet against incipient or sudden catastrophe. It should do this in close cooperation with the European Space Agency, national agencies such as those in Russia, Canada, China and Japan, as well as with U.S. Space Command, which would have the ultimate responsibility for "negating" whatever large dirty rock is heading our way. Cooperation for planetary defense would also have the residual effect of establishing an international commonality of purpose that would hopefully make the defense (and extension) of national boundaries seem less imperative.
ENDIT
printed in the Op Ed section of Space News (Sept 23, 2002)
Planetary Defense It has been three decades since Apollo 17 became the last manned mission to the Moon. That is precisely how long the space program has been without an overarching sense of purpose.
While there have been a number of outstanding achievements since then – Voyager 2's Grand Tour of the outer planets, the Hubble Space Telescope, and the Shuttle-Mir flights, to take only three – the space program is floundering because it lacks focus on a clear and truly important goal.
The International Space Station is not a contender. It has been downgraded by the current administration (which has a reputation for reneging on commitments), is hated by most space scientists, and is ignored by an indifferent public that sees no real purpose to it. Indeed, most educated individuals I know think that $500 million shuttle launches and astronauts bolting station modules together while dangling upside down at the end of tethers is horrendously wasteful and frivolous while down-to-Earth problems (pick one) persist for lack of adequate funding.
Yet these is a vitally important goal that the space community is uniquely qualified to address. That is planetary defense in its many manifestations. Access to space has given mankind the means to protect Earth from many threats for the first time. The three large asteroids that wandered into the neighborhood earlier this year, the closest streaking past Earth at an astronomically minute 75,000 miles, were sending a message. No astronomer who specializes in Earth-crossing asteroids and comets believes the planet is in imminent danger of a collision. But there have been catastrophic hits before – the best known being the one that finished off dinosaurs sixty-one million years ago – and there will be others.
Knowing that, Congress authorized the Spaceguard program ten years ago. Spaceguard (named after a similar program in Arthur C. Clarke's 1973 novel, Rendezvous with Rama) is currently trying to catalogue ninety percent or more of kilometer-size
Earth-crossers, or "city-busters," that could threaten Earth. NASA is an active participant in the program. Three decades warning of an impact would be necessary to nudge the intruder to a safer trajectory.
But asteroids and comets on surprise visits from the Oort Cloud are far from the only potentially calamitous dangers we face. The list includes massive volcanism and earthquakes, forest and water depletion, nuclear war, global warming, pollution, and a worldwide computer crash that could cause chaos in communication and transportation.
Many of these threats could be reversed or mitigated by using space in a comprehensive, multi-faceted, program with a single, clearly articulated, goal: saving the species by protecting Earth. That is hardly frivolous.
Species survival through planetary defense would justify a wide array of programs. Chief among them would be a reinvigorated manned program aimed at starting what would become a large colony on the Moon. The inhabitants would, in turn, be the keepers of a continuously updated archive containing civilization's artistic, scientific, political, and other records, as well as a biological component that could recreate many species, ourselves included.
Those of us who are working on the archive concept call it ARC, for the Alliance to Rescue Civilization, and are convinced it is necessary to back up civilization's record and the natural world for the same reason it is necessary to back up a computer's hard drive: to be able to recover from a crash. Spreading the seed and duplicating the record for safekeeping off the planet are the most compelling reasons to send people to space.
ARC would have a two-fold benefit. It would provide the means to resurrect the culture and biology of a severely stricken planet. And it would serve to further international cooperation because all nations would be invited to participate. There would, however, be a caveat. Since ARC would necessarily be an infinitely long and on- going project (not a time capsule, which would become less useful as time went on), it would have to be funded mostly by the private sector rather than be held hostage to the vagaries and whims of whatever political administration or even system that is in power. With a large-scale return to the Moon in the agenda, heavy emphasis on researching life in closed systems would also be included in the program, and so would the long-stalled development of single or two stage to orbit space buses.
Remote sensing would be another fundamental aspect of planetary defense. In fact, it already is, though it is not rationalized that way. CORONA reconnaissance satellite imagery of the Aral Sea from the early '60s, compared with much more recent Landsat imagery, shows startling shrinkage. Other orbital imagery is describing the break up of part of the Antarctic ice shelf. And the switch from on the ground measurement and guesswork to comprehensive satellite pictures is providing scientists with clear evidence that the world's humid tropical forest cover is being burned down and hacked away at an alarming rate. Unlike estimates made on the spot by experts looking around and trying to make measurements, satellite imagery depicting deforestation, pollution, urban sprawl, and shrinking watersheds is precise and conclusive. Whatever the political and economic decisions, the data are not subject to widely differing interpretation. Similarly, remote sensing can provide warning of a volcano's impending eruption because the ground above and around it heaves as the first explosion occurs and molten lava starts to move. Other satellites in the program would monitor solar flare activity, monitor carbon dioxide levels, measure ozone levels, and more. All of these operations should be brought together under the aegis of a single, unified, and integrated program run by NASA for the sole purpose of protecting the planet against incipient or sudden catastrophe. It should do this in close cooperation with the European Space Agency, national agencies such as those in Russia, Canada, China and Japan, as well as with U.S. Space Command, which would have the ultimate responsibility for "negating" whatever large dirty rock is heading our way. Cooperation for planetary defense would also have the residual effect of establishing an international commonality of purpose that would hopefully make the defense (and extension) of national boundaries seem less imperative.
ENDIT
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